Wednesday, June 25, 2008

REAL ESTATE VERSUS INFLATION part 1 B

An old man told my old friend many years ago in Sicily: Buy real estate on the water. My friend told me that he thought the old guy was crazy. On the contrary, that old man had the wisdom of seeing a future different that of the past dictatorship of Mussolini. Real estate taken away from the nobles and distributed to the people would eventually create value. With the introduction of democracy and eventually some capitalism, property values tended to go up in Italy. Another factor is inflation. If inflation is at 20 percent, it is reasonable to assert that property values should go up 20 percent. In a perfect world, maybe inflation and property values should go hand in hand. But this is not case. Real estate is different and laws are different in different places. Collusion in real estate also tend to keep prices higher as well as easy lending. It is funny that when you ask Kudlow or any other top economist at some Waldorf Astoria conference about real estate, they tend to shy away indicating that they don't make predictions on real estate. A real economist, instead would have to crunch some numbers and come to some kind of value. When I asked Larry back in November 2005 a combo question about Americans borrowing too much and real estate values going up too fast, he argued on the contrary relating his answers to the health of the M1 and M2 and M3 and the strength of the GDP.
Little did he know that we were, and still today, heading towards one of the most depressive period since the Great Depression.

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